Here's a site that lists who received honorary Oscars and why. It's a large list and the reasons are varied. My favorite recipient is Shirley Temple who won an undersized Oscar at the age of six for being an inspiration to the nation during the Great Depression. So, an honorary Oscar is not at all 'damn unlikely,' damn it.

http://www.oscarworld.net/honorary.htm

Another huge possibility for Jackson is the Thalberg Award which is given for directorial excellence above and beyond the norm.

But, like you said, we'll just have to wait and see.