The Whole Oscar Thing
Friday, January 9th, 2004 10:10 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
seraiI've been collecting the Variety and Hollywood Reporter Oscar ads for all three films over the past three years, so I get to see a lot of the buzz and such. Here's what I think will happen.
The film will get nominated, for BP and Best Director. The effects and technicals will get nominated. Howard Shore will get nominated. But the actors?...
LOTR fans had better brace themselves for the possibility that NONE of the actors will be nominated. Certainly there's a very good possibility that Sean Astin will get a nod for BSA, and Sir Ian and Viggo also are possibles (though I think Sean is the likeliest). However, I find it doubtful he'll win, though he might. He just might.
Elijah will NOT, repeat NOT, get a nomination. That hurts to say, but it's the truth as I gather it from the trades. His work is extraordinary, but he's too young and too beautiful to get the nod. Shallow and stupid, yes?
Not exactly. The problem is most people don't know much about the Academy. It's made up of experienced people who are invited to join by the Academy itself. Thus, they tend to be older, more conservative, and not given to flights of experimentation, or appreciation of the young and unusual. Witness that list up there of all the great films they've pooped on. The killer for me was Pulp Fiction losing out to Forrest Gump. That tells you everything in a nutshell. Any real respect I ever had for the Academy went out the window with that one.
But we've also got to remember that, our deep love and geekiness notwithstanding, ROTK wasn't the only film released this year. There are many, many films in consideration, and some of them really are brilliant and deserving of accolades no less than Our One True Love. The Academy members aren't necessarily Tolkien fans in any greater percetage than we are to the general population, so automatically expecting them to share our loyalties really is unrealistic. The film does deserve Best Picture, IMO. But I haven't seen many films this year, so I can't say no other film deserves it as well. The fact that Cold Mountain was not nominated by the Director's Guild of America for their BP or BD does give ROTK a very good chance, however, as no film without at least a nomination for the DGA Awards has ever won the Oscar. And CM was the biggest competition against ROTK, at least according to the trades.
There's been some schmoozy "We love ROTK" stuff from industry folks. One Studio Head was quoted a couple of months ago as saying "We're all pushing our own films, of course, but we really want ROTK to win this." A nice sentiment, but I wouldn't hold my breath. I think it very likely it'll take technicals, and perhaps Original Score. Slightly less likely is BP (though oddly enough, I think it more likely PJ will take BD). But *sigh*, I wouldn't count on any Acting awards, though you never know. There have been upsets before, and the "no youngsters" thing does get blown out of the water now and then - witness Anna Paquin and Tatum O'Neal. (Though they were kids and thus may have owed their Oscars to the "can't believe a child gave that performance" syndrome, which is a bit condescending, if you ask me. And Elijah's no kid anymore.)
These are only my own predictions, of course, and could certainly be proven wrong. But I really don't think they will be. We can only console ourselves with the idea that this film will be honored (as is already happening) with lots of awards. The Oscar would just be icing on the cake. ;)
The film will get nominated, for BP and Best Director. The effects and technicals will get nominated. Howard Shore will get nominated. But the actors?...
LOTR fans had better brace themselves for the possibility that NONE of the actors will be nominated. Certainly there's a very good possibility that Sean Astin will get a nod for BSA, and Sir Ian and Viggo also are possibles (though I think Sean is the likeliest). However, I find it doubtful he'll win, though he might. He just might.
Elijah will NOT, repeat NOT, get a nomination. That hurts to say, but it's the truth as I gather it from the trades. His work is extraordinary, but he's too young and too beautiful to get the nod. Shallow and stupid, yes?
Not exactly. The problem is most people don't know much about the Academy. It's made up of experienced people who are invited to join by the Academy itself. Thus, they tend to be older, more conservative, and not given to flights of experimentation, or appreciation of the young and unusual. Witness that list up there of all the great films they've pooped on. The killer for me was Pulp Fiction losing out to Forrest Gump. That tells you everything in a nutshell. Any real respect I ever had for the Academy went out the window with that one.
But we've also got to remember that, our deep love and geekiness notwithstanding, ROTK wasn't the only film released this year. There are many, many films in consideration, and some of them really are brilliant and deserving of accolades no less than Our One True Love. The Academy members aren't necessarily Tolkien fans in any greater percetage than we are to the general population, so automatically expecting them to share our loyalties really is unrealistic. The film does deserve Best Picture, IMO. But I haven't seen many films this year, so I can't say no other film deserves it as well. The fact that Cold Mountain was not nominated by the Director's Guild of America for their BP or BD does give ROTK a very good chance, however, as no film without at least a nomination for the DGA Awards has ever won the Oscar. And CM was the biggest competition against ROTK, at least according to the trades.
There's been some schmoozy "We love ROTK" stuff from industry folks. One Studio Head was quoted a couple of months ago as saying "We're all pushing our own films, of course, but we really want ROTK to win this." A nice sentiment, but I wouldn't hold my breath. I think it very likely it'll take technicals, and perhaps Original Score. Slightly less likely is BP (though oddly enough, I think it more likely PJ will take BD). But *sigh*, I wouldn't count on any Acting awards, though you never know. There have been upsets before, and the "no youngsters" thing does get blown out of the water now and then - witness Anna Paquin and Tatum O'Neal. (Though they were kids and thus may have owed their Oscars to the "can't believe a child gave that performance" syndrome, which is a bit condescending, if you ask me. And Elijah's no kid anymore.)
These are only my own predictions, of course, and could certainly be proven wrong. But I really don't think they will be. We can only console ourselves with the idea that this film will be honored (as is already happening) with lots of awards. The Oscar would just be icing on the cake. ;)
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Date: Friday, January 9th, 2004 07:42 pm (UTC)I do think there's a factor of the voting being on the three-movie package (although of course that's not what Academy members are supposed to do, and not what they'll say they're doing) to raise the odds for any particular award this year, as opposed to last year and the year before.
Fantasy is a tough sell at the Oscars, but literature-based fantasy gets some points, and the massive achievement of making three movies that aren't a let-down may count for something too. It's certainly worth watching what goes on, and maybe hoping a bit.
Thank you!
As Ben Franklin said, if I were an optimist, I'd be constantly disappointed. But as a pessimist, I get the distinct pleasure of saying I told you so when things go badly, but when things go well, I'm pleasantly surprised! (Smart guy, ol' Ben was.)