The Whole Oscar Thing

[serai]

I've been collecting the Variety and Hollywood Reporter Oscar ads for all three films over the past three years, so I get to see a lot of the buzz and such. Here's what I think will happen.

The film will get nominated, for BP and Best Director. The effects and technicals will get nominated. Howard Shore will get nominated. But the actors?...


LOTR fans had better brace themselves for the possibility that NONE of the actors will be nominated. Certainly there's a very good possibility that Sean Astin will get a nod for BSA, and Sir Ian and Viggo also are possibles (though I think Sean is the likeliest). However, I find it doubtful he'll win, though he might. He just might.

Elijah will NOT, repeat NOT, get a nomination. That hurts to say, but it's the truth as I gather it from the trades. His work is extraordinary, but he's too young and too beautiful to get the nod. Shallow and stupid, yes?

Not exactly. The problem is most people don't know much about the Academy. It's made up of experienced people who are invited to join by the Academy itself. Thus, they tend to be older, more conservative, and not given to flights of experimentation, or appreciation of the young and unusual. Witness that list up there of all the great films they've pooped on. The killer for me was Pulp Fiction losing out to Forrest Gump. That tells you everything in a nutshell. Any real respect I ever had for the Academy went out the window with that one.

But we've also got to remember that, our deep love and geekiness notwithstanding, ROTK wasn't the only film released this year. There are many, many films in consideration, and some of them really are brilliant and deserving of accolades no less than Our One True Love. The Academy members aren't necessarily Tolkien fans in any greater percetage than we are to the general population, so automatically expecting them to share our loyalties really is unrealistic. The film does deserve Best Picture, IMO. But I haven't seen many films this year, so I can't say no other film deserves it as well. The fact that Cold Mountain was not nominated by the Director's Guild of America for their BP or BD does give ROTK a very good chance, however, as no film without at least a nomination for the DGA Awards has ever won the Oscar. And CM was the biggest competition against ROTK, at least according to the trades.

There's been some schmoozy "We love ROTK" stuff from industry folks. One Studio Head was quoted a couple of months ago as saying "We're all pushing our own films, of course, but we really want ROTK to win this." A nice sentiment, but I wouldn't hold my breath. I think it very likely it'll take technicals, and perhaps Original Score. Slightly less likely is BP (though oddly enough, I think it more likely PJ will take BD). But *sigh*, I wouldn't count on any Acting awards, though you never know. There have been upsets before, and the "no youngsters" thing does get blown out of the water now and then - witness Anna Paquin and Tatum O'Neal. (Though they were kids and thus may have owed their Oscars to the "can't believe a child gave that performance" syndrome, which is a bit condescending, if you ask me. And Elijah's no kid anymore.)

These are only my own predictions, of course, and could certainly be proven wrong. But I really don't think they will be. We can only console ourselves with the idea that this film will be honored (as is already happening) with lots of awards. The Oscar would just be icing on the cake. ;)

Comments

[(Anonymous)]

I think it's ridiculous to think that Viggo stands more of a chance than Elijah based on ROTK. I don't think Elijah stands a chance, but I think he has more of a chance than Viggo simply because people(thanks to the ridiculous over hype) were expecting more from him. He was considered a lead for most of the year, now he is barely a supporting candidate.

As for Sean, it could happen, but I somehow doubt it. I think most people know that while his performance was very good, it was NOT the most difficult or demanding. And I don't know that many are going to forget the "chubby sidekick" thing.

Ian might be the best hope. He's gotten a lot of critical praise for this role and should not be counted out.

Regardless of who has a chance or not, I'm glad to see New Line pushing Elijah.

[serai1.livejournal.com]

Yet again, you have to consider the makeup of the Academy. People think the voting should reflect popular opinion, but that's just what it isn't. What we think has absolutely nothing to do with the voting (which is why there are those bizarre results that piss so many off). The Academy members would be more likely to honor Viggo than Elijah because of his experience. It may sound stupid, but there you are. They're not going to give some 22-year-old the Oscar when there are a lot more experienced people in the running.

And again, remember that there are many films up for noms, with many fine actors in them. They deserve consideration as well, and there are only 5 spots available for BA and five for BSA. Elijah not getting any noms? Well, it ain't the way I'd have it, but that's the way things stand, unfortunately.

[(Anonymous)]

One thing to keep in mind about Sean is that he is Famous Hollywood Offspring. His mother won an Oscar. The Academy votes for the story behind the actor as much (if not more) than the actual performance. Hence Gwyneth Paltrow's win, Laura Dern's nomination, everything Michael Douglas ever did, and Sofia Coppola's guaranteed nomination. If the Academy looks at Sean in terms of second generation Oscar winner, and what a fantastic acceptance speech he'll make mentioning his mum, his chances of getting nominated are greater. At least that's what I'm desperately clinging to.

[serai1.livejournal.com]

That's a very good point, and one that takes into account the political aspect of the Oscars. Thanks! :)

[singeaddams.livejournal.com]

I agree with you but I don't see Jackson winning best director. The Academy just doesn't go for fantasy. But what I THINK will probably happen is he will get an honorary Oscar for 'Most Remarkable Big-Ass Cinematic Achievement' or whatever as a sop for everyone who absolutely loved the trilogy.

[serai1.livejournal.com]

Actually, that's far more unlikely than him getting the BD Oscar. Those kinds of honorary awards are extremely rare - the ones that are given are for Lifetime Achievement. And at 37 (am I right with his age?), that's damn unlikely.

It really isn't completely off that he'd get BD. I've been surprised at the industry awards he's already gotten. And his being nominated for the DGA award gives his chances a big boost. We'll just have to see! :)

[singeaddams.livejournal.com]

Here's a site that lists who received honorary Oscars and why. It's a large list and the reasons are varied. My favorite recipient is Shirley Temple who won an undersized Oscar at the age of six for being an inspiration to the nation during the Great Depression. So, an honorary Oscar is not at all 'damn unlikely,' damn it.

http://www.oscarworld.net/honorary.htm

Another huge possibility for Jackson is the Thalberg Award which is given for directorial excellence above and beyond the norm.

But, like you said, we'll just have to wait and see.

[singeaddams.livejournal.com]

This sounds a little harsher than what I intended. Sorry 'bout that!

[strangerian.livejournal.com]

This kind of hard-headed assessment based on how the Academy works is sorely lacking in fandom, and I suspect you'll be proved right in a majority of your predictions, maybe all of them.

I do think there's a factor of the voting being on the three-movie package (although of course that's not what Academy members are supposed to do, and not what they'll say they're doing) to raise the odds for any particular award this year, as opposed to last year and the year before.

Fantasy is a tough sell at the Oscars, but literature-based fantasy gets some points, and the massive achievement of making three movies that aren't a let-down may count for something too. It's certainly worth watching what goes on, and maybe hoping a bit.

Thank you!

[serai1.livejournal.com]

It pains me to draw some of those conclusions, but we gotta get real. Convincing ourselves that we can make it happen by the force of our will, love, geekiness - whatever - is really just setting ourselves up for a disappointment. Pretty much the same as hoping the films would be exactly as any one of us wanted them to be. I'm not happy playing that game, as I'd much rather see things as they are and be happy when they work out well.

As Ben Franklin said, if I were an optimist, I'd be constantly disappointed. But as a pessimist, I get the distinct pleasure of saying I told you so when things go badly, but when things go well, I'm pleasantly surprised! (Smart guy, ol' Ben was.)

[shirebound]

For what it's worth (not much), here are my Oscar predictions:

PJ will win for Best Director

ROTK will win for Best Special Effects, Best Score, and Best Costumes

ROTK will be nominated for Best Picture, but not win

No ROTK actors will even be nominated

(Since we have so few expectations, I hope we're all pleasantly surprised!)

[allisona.livejournal.com]

Oscar thoughts:

I think ROTK has a good chance of winning Best Picture this year. Sometimes fearlessness, innovation and popularity can't be denied, even by the Academy. I still think folk who believe that the Acamdemy was simply waiting for the last movie to come out to give LOTR its due may be proven right. Add Peter Jackson as Best Director and I wouldn't be surprised to see ROTK do a one-two punch. I think it would be a sentimental and popular move.

To get Special Effects ROTK will have to get passed the Matrix movies. It could well happen, being that the Matrix flicks were a critical disappointment, but with LOTR taking that award two years running it will be interesting to see if they can do it again.

Howard Shore already has a LOTR Score Oscar, though he was unjustly denied a nomination last year, so it will be interesting, too, to see if he gets awarded another.

I agree that ROTK will likely have no actor nominations. If by some wonder Sean Astin does get into the top 5, which would be way cool, but unlikely, he will not win. I'd put my money on that other Sean- Sean Penn.

I'd like to see "Into The West" nominated just for the pleasure of hearing Annie Lennox sing the song on Oscar night. She will likely lose out, though, to one of the songs in "Cold Mountain".

Best Adapted Screenplay could be very interesting, as well. I'll be honest in saying that if Fran, Philippa and Peter don't take it I wouldn't shed too many tears, though I expect to see them at least nominated. LOTR is an overwhelming acheivement, but there are still adaptation issues, especially in character, that I still take exception to.

All in all, it should a fun and suspenseful night of Oscar watching.